The year ahead - predictions for 2016


It feels like we've waited a long time since we last had a "Year of the X". Which is probably a good thing, because every time we claimed Year Y to be Year of the Z, we were wrong. Nobody called the year of mobile correctly, it took longer than we expected for the year of social to embed, and our year of video predictions were out too.

Which makes it slightly risky for me to now predict that next year will be the year of the new.

My 10 predictions for 2016 are mostly about new uses for technology that has emerged in the last year or two:

  1. VR will find its commercial tipping point - helped by Oculus' launch
  2. Crowdfunding will overtake VC, officially
  3. Facebook's core platform MAUs will be dwarfed by its investments in Messenger, Instagram, and WhatsApp
  4. Unicorn growth will slow
  5. Half of the top 10 new apps will come from existing creators - with "instant hits" being rarer
  6. Barclays (UK) will cave and join the Apple Pay program
  7. Apple will have a slow Q2 (and be savaged by Wall Street), but rebound for a killer Q4
  8. The music streaming space will see a new entrant to challenge Apple Music and Spotify - perhaps from an existing parallel like music journalism, ticketing, or fan content
  9. Tesla's much-rumoured launch of its mass-market-priced model will redefine the electric- / hybrid- automotive sector
  10. We'll see new future icons make headway in the burgeoning AI, robotics, and drone spaces

As a bonus 11th prediction: BlackBerry will finally restructure its floundering operations globally under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code.

As always, I look forward to looking back at the end of the year and see how correct / wildly out I am!